🔗 Share this article

Amid the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.