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Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously backed the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does because then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.