Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
