‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply is unavailable," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their fuel reserves have dwindled with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the government insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say cylinders are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the war.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been sparked by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.